Yes, it will affect it, but it could go either way, depending on the exact timing. If you're starting to retain water in your first week, then you won't see so much of a drop on the 1st weigh-in, but you'll also get a good drop the 2nd week to make up for it (I think that's what happened to me...). If you've already been retaining water just before your initial weigh-in, then you'll get a massive drop on week one (losing both glycogen-water and TOTM water) but then nothing like so much on week two.
Either way, it will even out overall, so don't get too hung up on it either way. Just trust that the process of getting rid of glycogen and starting to burn fat is on its way, and any TOTM interference is totally superficial.
Best of luck, stay strong and stick with it,